Date Russia and Ukraine war could see key development after winter slow down

In the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, expert analysis suggests that the most crucial developments may be on the horizon, with key events likely to unfold in the coming months.

Serhii Plokhy, author of The Russo-Ukrainian War, pointed to a potential timeline for significant changes in the conflict dynamics.

Mr Plokhy’s observations emphasise the evolving nature of the conflict, as well as the factors that could influence the direction it will move in.

Speaking to, he said: “The year ends with a lot of unanswered questions.

“I think that answers for the future of the war will be first given on the battlefield. And only after that at the negotiation table.”

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As the year progresses, Plokhy believes that the state of morale within Ukraine will play a critical role in shaping the direction of the war. “In Ukraine at this point, morale remains to be quite high,” he noted.

“So what we will see probably in spring and summer is a continuation of the warfare, and whatever compromise or lack thereof can be reached would probably be decided not earlier than the summer of the next year. And then I have no doubt there will be some gentle pressure on Kyiv.”

Plokhy’s analysis underscores the seasonal dynamics of warfare in the region. He pointed out that winter does not necessarily mark the end of hostilities in this part of the world, but it is also not the time for major movements of the front lines. The major battlefield today is in the black earth area of Ukraine, which is known for its rich soil, potentially one of the richest in Europe and the world.

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However, the presence of the black earth soil comes with its own set of challenges. “But that also means that it’s almost impossible to move through the black earth mud,” Plokhy explained. “So the major offensives so far were taking place in late spring, summer, and then early fall.”

Based on his observations, Plokhy suggests that if there is to be a successful offensive, it is most likely to happen when the conditions are favourable for troops and heavy equipment to move across the Ukrainian steppes.

In this context, spring and summer emerge as the prime seasons for significant military actions, as the absence of muddy terrain facilitates more effective manoeuvres.

The Russo-Ukrainian War by Serhii Plokhy, published by Penguin Books, is on sale now.

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