Why they say insurance on ♥♣BLACKJACK♠♦ is a sucker bet, explained in 6 minutes!

Whatsup guys, Slotplayer here and today I will explain to you quickly something about blackjack so we can conclude the series of, videos on that game. So, for sure you have already heard that insurance, is a sucker bet and that Casinos really like when you go for it. But, it might well be that you don’t entirely understand why is that, so I will explain. it in this video. So, we will calculate exactly how much is, the house advantage on Blackjack and how that percentage compares to the other games and, various bets in the Casino. So, to recap the basics a bit. If Dealer shows an ace as his first card,, insurance will be offered to players. That basically means that you can bet that the Dealer’s next card will be a ten and therefore house will have a Blackjack and beat all players hands that are not blackjack as well. In the most of Casinos, insurance can be bet. up to the half of your original bet. Since insurance pays 2 to 1, that means that the player will win back exactly the amount that was bet in the first place as player’s, wager on the box. At the end, because player losses the original. bet, but wins the insurance, it turns out as if nothing really happened. Even if player also gets a Blackjack it will be as if nothing happened as the same outcome for both Dealer and Player means a draw, and, bet stays as is. But if a player bets the insurance, and Dealer does not get a blackjack, then insurance is lost and the hand will be decided as usual. with the final totals for the player and the dealer. Some people say that it is good to insure. the strong points totals like 20s. That is because ¸in option 1) the Dealer. will have a blackjack and player will keep his money or in option 2) game will move on, and player will have a very strong total of 20 that will very likely win the hand. Now we will calculate why this is wrong way of thinking and why it doesn’t matter at all what score the player has. OK, so we said Dealer gets an Ace and then asks, if anyone wants to do insurance. Let’s see how many options are there for the second card, can anyone guess? So the second card could be, lets start from,

the beginning, an ace, deuce, three, four and so on until the last card of the suit. – King. That means there are 13 possibilities for. a second card. We will neglect now how many cards are out. already and will do the math as if all cards are still in play to keep it simple. OK, so if a player bets 1 money on each one, of these 13 possibilities, how many coins will he spend? Let’s count them, 1,2,3 and so on up to 13. That was easy, even my 6 year old nephew could, have counted that. Ok, and how many coins did the player get, back after all 13 possibilities were played out? Let’s see, we said that player gets 2 for. each bet of 1. That is 3 coins allthogether. And how many tens are there in the deck, that is the key question because each 10 will make a player win 3 coins. So there is a ten, jack, queen and a King, all together 4 tens or picture cards. So there are 4 outcomes out of 13 that a Dealer will receive a ten as a second card. And for each of those 4 outcomes, player will receive 3 coins as a win. And now we do the final calculation. So, player has spent 13 coins to bet on every single possible outcome of insurance bet. And player got back 4 times 3 coins, or 12 coins. in total. Here we are, we have spend 13 to win back. 12 so now we need to divide those two numbers, to know exactly what is the payback percentage for the insurance bet on blackjack. So, 12 divided 13 is 0.923 or 92,3% is the. payback percentage. That rest up to a 100 - 7,7%, is what the house, keeps, so called house advantage, so Casino can pay the employees, utilities and other expenses, and only if anything is left over then the owner can buy the Mercedes Benz. Compare that to the 2,7% on the single zero Roulette or under 1% on Blackjack base game, and you can see why they call the Insurance a. sucker bet. As I said, we did not go into details here, for example if game is played with 1,6 or 8 decks, or some cards have been already used and that changes chances. This is pure theoretical on the single deck. Talking about that, it is true that the house advantage on blackjack can shift to the other side if player counts cards and knows there

are more tens still in play. So, check out my video about card counting on blackjack and subscribe to the channel if you find it interesting, I guess you know how to do it already. Ok, let’s do a simulation to check all this. Of course, this is how every single gambling, game works, it has a built in advantage in the payout plan than makes it worth for a. organizer to do the game. Let’s make a matrix with 1 million of random outcomes from 1 to 13. In Excel this is done with this formula, 1000 times 1000 is obviously one million. I will zoom out a bit just so you can see, what it means one million of numbers on the screen. Here on the side we will count how many of, each number came out in this random matrix. Here is the sum of outcomes showing a million,. and in this column is the percentage of numbers in the total. You can see that in percentages that is more. or less the same and it does not matter much that sometimes a difference in the outcomes, is more than a thousand. on million outcomes that is very close. And this formula here multiplies the number of cards worth 10 points with 3, that was the number of coins we got winning the insurance bet when a Blackjack came out, right?. We divide that with a million, the total we. have spent playing one coin on each outcome. And every time we get the number that is exact. or very close to the 92,3%, the number we said is a payback percentage. So, every time I press any key, the formula. puts out a new million of random outcomes and every time it comes to the more or less similar number. That’s why the house always has the advantage. in the long run. Guys, If you play, play a little bit and only. with the money you can afford to lose. Think of gambling as entertainment and not a way to make money. That’s all from Slotplayer for today, take. care and stay smart!,