Dark Reality of Trading | Lordmoneyengar | Aaditya Iyengar

There is no bigger scam than trading in 2023. Now, you all will be ready to disagree immediately. But listen to me carefully. You must have seen motivational speakers. I am a demotivational speaker. I demotivate you not to make losses. So, listen to me carefully. I will give you a good argument. Why you should not trade? And by you, I mean 99% of the population. You must have seen videos everywhere. That if you don't trade, you are doing wrong in life. If you are trading, you get a secondary source of income. If you want to trade, no one can teach you better than me. You can buy my course and become a master trader. And not only that, if you find a trader, ask him how much money he made in a year. He will give you a figure. He will give you a screenshot. Now, I have only one question. If everyone who is trading is in profit, then who is making a loss? You must know that trading is a zero-sum game. The profit you make, there is a person on the other side who is selling and he is making a loss. If everyone is making a profit, then who is making a loss? Now, I will give you two different types of arguments. Why you should not trade? The first argument is evidence-backed. That means science has proved it. How do we know that gravity works? There is empirical evidence on it. That means, there were some people in the past who did research. And they proved in published work that gravity actually works. They also demonstrated that there are such situations where if something falls from a tree, then it falls down and does not go up. So, there is evidence that gravity works. We call this as empirical evidence. Now, if you look at this empirical evidence in the sense of trading, then you will not get much. In fact, if you google, does technical analysis actually work? Then you get the first result that there is very little evidence that technical analysis actually works. It means that it has been established that there is no evidence that technical analysis works. Just like there is no evidence of b****** in your life. Emotional damage. There are two ways to invest. First is fundamental analysis. That means, if you see a good business, if this business is earning more money, increasing the margin, acquiring the market, then you invest in that business. When that business grows, you also earn money. The simple thing about technical analysis is that if the price of a stock goes down a lot, then we can determine at a level that it will go up from here. Now, how do we know that it will go up? Because the assumption is that human beings behave in a predictable way. Human behavior is very repetitive. When the market goes down, it goes up. This is an example of human behavior. So, if we can predict human behavior, then why can't we predict the prices that change because of human behavior? Let me give you an example. On 20th October, Nasdaq fell by 3400 points. Many people were saying that a healthy correction has started from here. And in a few days, the market will go up again. But within a month, Nasdaq fell by 1600 points from 3400. But now you will say that this was just one incident. That's exactly the point. If in the past, it has happened 10 times that a share falls, then after a few days, it comes up. 11th time, it will happen that once it falls, instead of going up, it falls down again. So what point am I proving with this? Only this, that human behaviour is predictable to some extent. But sometimes, in such special instances, it becomes very unpredictable. Like the time of 2008 crash or 2020 crash. And the problem is that when this unpredictable human behaviour actually comes in the picture, then whatever profit you have earned in the past, you lose it because of this one unpredictable behaviour. The second reason is that most traders are approximately 95% failures. They are unable to earn money in the market over the long run. Mainly because the cost of trading is very high. When you repeatedly trade in the market, then you give brokerage, securities transaction tax, and whatever profit you make, you also give taxes on it. So when you are a long-term investor, the number of transactions in your life is very less. Because once you invest, you hold it for a few years. So as you hold it for a longer period of time, all these costs seem to be very low. But when you repeatedly buy and sell, these costs are low in the beginning but they add up later. And the split here is very unfair. Where 95% traders are in loss, the remaining 5% are earning the profit of all the traders. So here, you don't think that there will be a problem in our thinking if everyone thinks that they can come in that 5%. Now, I have given you an evidence-based argument, let me give you a practical argument as well. First of all, trading is a full-time job. You cannot trade part-time along with your studies. The reason being, learning is so involved in this that if you want to do it properly, you have to learn by giving that much time. Only after that, you can trade a little. Yes, there is a way where you don't need to give full-time commitment, which is positional trading. But even there, due to poor risk management, most traders are unable to make a profit. And number 2, this is the most important point. Honestly, this is more important than any other point. It is that it is psychologically draining. When you buy a share for Rs.100 and it goes up to Rs.95, you think that your analysis is correct and it will go up again. Then it goes up to Rs.90 and you start getting scared. As soon as it goes up to Rs.80, you think that you have lost 20%, so you sell it. You sell it and you have lost 20%. Then it goes up to Rs.90 again and you say that it will go up again. You buy it and it goes up to Rs.70 again. Basically, there is a feeling in the market that the whole market is always against you. Here, the market is not at fault, it is your fault. Because you are trading without thinking, without studying. And not only that, even if you had studied, it is very difficult to combat this psychological stress. There is only one way to beat it. And that is, to practice trading with real money in a small amount. Many people make a mistake, they do paper trading. They practice trading with fake money, then they will enter the real market. But this fake money will not give you this psychological stress. And number 3, obviously, it is not as easy as it looks. Please, all these screenshots that you are seeing online, all these gurus who are selling courses worth 20-25 thousand, all of them are more or less lying to you. Because, see, think logically. All these people are showing you a skill that is not even scientifically proven. A skill that does not have any evidence to work in the past. A skill that has a 95% failure rate to practice. And on top of that, if all these people are saying that they have mastered this skill, and now they are going to teach you for 25,000 rupees. So, what do you think? Are all these people's income coming from trading or from the 25,000 rupees in your pocket? So, what is the conclusion? What should you do? See, quite frankly, there are some people who know how to trade. Whether technical analysis works or not, their mind works in such a way that they are able to manage that thing. So, if you are able to find such a person, if you are able to learn from him in a reasonable amount, then good for you. But even if you learn, training your brain and your psychology is going to be your job. And not only that, even after learning from them, you cannot take your trading journey lightly. You have to treat it like a full-time job. So, if you don't have time to take all these headaches, or simply you don't want to take these headaches, and you want to make a profit and not losses, then please stay away from trading. People often think that trading is an easy way to earn money. But no, it is like any other job. You will go there, you will get better at work, you will learn skills, only then you will be able to earn money from there. Moral of the story is that money doesn't come after doing an online course, it comes after hard work. So, please improve and be careful. Respect your money. Invest it in good places for long term. You will see results in the future. The point is that you will be able to earn income at a later stage only through your investment. So, currently, focus on work. Anyway, I keep posting such high-value videos. If you got any value from this video, then please subscribe to my channel and press the bell icon. I will see you next week.