US midterms: Jason Miller discusses ‘Trump effect’
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Donald Trump could be the biggest factor in the Republicans potentially redrawing the political map in America, new evidence has indicated. With polls suggesting a “generational shift” in support between the ruling Democrats and the Republicans, most of the candidates expected to be victorious today have been endorsed by the former President. They also hope it will force Joe Biden to declare early.
Jason Miller is working on Mr Trump’s preparation for a fresh run on the White House. He believes that, when it comes to endorsements, Mr Trump has an almost unique impact on candidate chances.
It means that the Maga (Make America Great Again) movement is in a strong position to take control in Washington DC and be ready for a potential second Trump presidency in 2025 if he wins the 2024 election.
The former President has galvanised support for his party with 30 “Save America” rallies in 17 states over the last year.
Mr Trump has endorsed 294 candidates in the 2022 midterm elections and, over the last two election cycles, 98.65 percent of those he endorsed have been selected by the Republicans.
He has a perfect record in 32 states and none of the Senate candidates he endorsed were defeated in the primaries.
In addition, eight of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump will not be in Congress next year.
President Trump raised nearly $350 million this election cycle for Republican candidates and Party Committees while Trump-backed PAC MAGA Inc. has spent over $16 million — and growing — in five US Senate races.
The figures appear to defy critics within the Republican Party who claim the Trump effect is harming their votes.
Mr Miller, who also was a senior figure in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns, said: “This is not something which normally happens with American politics.
“To have a former President who is out of office to have such a firm hold on his own party but also have such and impact on independents is very unusual.
“That is why you are going to see a generational alignment of seats tomorrow night.”
According to the Democracy Institute polling for Express.co.uk, the Republicans are on course to win between 245 and 265 of the 435 House seats – taking control from the Democrats.
Meanwhile, the current 50/50 split in the Senate could go to 54/46 in favour of the Republicans, who could even extend it further to 57/43.
Mr Miller said: “There are alot of the same issues which led to President Trump winning and Brexit happening.
“The political left still haven’t learnt their lesson. If politicians are deaf there will continue to be the populist uprising at the polls.”
According to the Democracy Institute poll of 1,500 likely voters, 56 percent now believe Mr Trump was a better President than Mr Biden is now, with suggestions there is regret for the 2020 result.
Only 40 percent think Mr Biden is better.
If the two faced each other again, Mr Trump would win easily by 49 percent to 45 percent.
But allies of Mr Trump believe that Mr Biden thinks he is still the only candidate who can triumph over his political foe. They believe an early declaration next week will force Mr Biden’s hand in declaring he wants to run again – even though the Democrats want to move on to a new candidate in 2024.
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Mr Miller said: “Joe Biden is arguably the worst President in our nation’s history.
“Even [including] the guy who died after 32 days [William Harrison], Joe Biden is still worse.
“The fact is that Biden is very unpopular and many people in his own party want him to step aside and not run for re-election.
“But Biden is very, very stubborn and his value proposition is essentially that he is the guy who has beaten Trump before; he’s the only one who can do it again.
“By Trump announcing early I think that forces Joe Biden’s hand and forces him to say ‘I am going to run’ to the dismay of most of the Democratic establishment but to the glee of Trump supporters and most people around the country.”
Mr Miller, however, believes the Democrats will select California governor Gavin Newsome who is “younger, more energetic and more ideologically sound for the Democrats”.
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