The number of House Republicans in crossover seats — districts carried by President Biden — nearly doubled from 2020 to 2022.
- Why it matters: This new cast of independent-minded Republicans could act as a moderating force in Kevin McCarthy's caucus.
The new Congress will include 16 to 18 House Republicans in Biden districts — up from nine after the 2020 election.
- Six of the split-ticket lawmakers hail from New York. Three to five will represent California (pending race calls).
- The number of Democrats representing Trump districts dipped: There'll likely be five of them — down from seven in the last Congress.
🔎 Between the lines: The majority-making Republicans who hail from blue districts want party leaders to focus on the economy, not impeachment.
- Former GOP Rep. Tom Davis, chair of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform from 2003 to 2007, told me in a panel discussion: "Nobody wants to go through [an impeachment] and lose the floor vote…. People are tired of that."
🖼️ The big picture: Even as the number of split-ticket voters inched up this year, the country is still in a historically partisan phase.
- The 21 to 23 split-ticket districts are ahead of 2020's level — but below the number of split-ticket seats in 2016 (35) and 2012 (26).
- After President Obama's decisive victory in 2008, there were 83 split-ticket districts — including 49 Dems in districts John McCain won.
🔬 Zoom in: The biggest House over-performers were Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), Rep.-elect Anthony D'Esposito (R-N.Y.), Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and Rep.-elect Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.)
- If Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Republican John Duarte of California hold on to their leads, they'll join the list.
🔭 Zoom out: In the Senate, partisanship was still king:
- Republicans won all 17 of the Senate races in states that Trump won in 2020. Democrats led in 15 of the 16 Senate races in states Biden carried.
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) was the only senator to prevail in a Biden state, with the Georgia Senate race heading to a runoff.
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